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Poker Education
What are the odds?
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
twospd
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What are the odds?
«
on:
January 13, 2012, 09:25:36 PM »
and how do I figure them?
In 4 hands quad 5's came out twice. I am not btchin,I was not involved in either hand. Every hand is independent of each other but what are the odds of this happening? And again, how do you figure it. Full Ring table.
There could be a better place to post this.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
sixandfour
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #1 on:
January 13, 2012, 11:55:56 PM »
I'll take a whack at it and Fletch can correct it if I screw it up.
The odds depend on what specifically you are looking for. The question is, do you want to know what the odds of it happening in a random set of 4 hands, or do you want to know the likelihood of it happening again within 3 hands once it has already happened?
Assuming full ring, every 25,921,000 hands you should see quad 5s occur twice within 4 hands. After they are dealt, the odds of it happening again within 3 hands is 2939.4:1.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
twospd
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #2 on:
January 14, 2012, 07:33:49 AM »
Quote from: sixandfour on January 13, 2012, 11:55:56 PM
. The question is, do you want to know what the
odds of it happening in a random set of 4 hands
, or do you want to know the likelihood of it happening again within 3 hands once it has already happened?
Assuming full ring, every 25,921,000 hands you should see quad 5s occur twice within 4 hands. After they are dealt, the odds of it happening again within 3 hands is 2939.4:1.
For now, this. More detail please and I will try to follow along. Yes FR.
So 1 in ~ 26 mil hands quad 5's will come out in a 4 hand span. Why does the odds drop to 1 in 2,940.4 that after happening it will happen again within the next 3 hands?
I can search this (actually tried with no luck) but to get a base # what is the odds of having any quads? and then specifically quad 5's ?
Edit
Ok, I looked through some of my books and it seems it is 1 in 17 being dealt a PP If we use the specific PP of AA then it is 1 in 221 So I assume it is the same odds as the AA hand to have 55 as a starting hand Is this correct so far?
«
Last Edit: January 14, 2012, 08:05:46 AM by twospd
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #3 on:
January 14, 2012, 01:10:03 PM »
Quote from: twospd on January 14, 2012, 07:33:49 AM
So 1 in ~ 26 mil hands quad 5's will come out in a 4 hand span. Why does the odds drop to 1 in 2,940.4 that after happening it will happen again within the next 3 hands?
The odds of it happening in a given hand (FR) are 1 in 8818.3 (see next question). Once that has already happened, you have 3 chances to repeat the act in the following 3 hands; i.e. 3/8818.3 or 1/2940.4. In essence, you've already had an unusual event happen once, and only need it to recur once instead of twice. The second figure is simply the first divided by that same 8818.3, because we are already assuming that that first hand is the 5555 occurence.
Quote from: twospd on January 14, 2012, 07:33:49 AM
I can search this (actually tried with no luck) but to get a base # what is the odds of having any quads? and then specifically quad 5's ?
The odds of ending up with quads in a HE hand is 1 in 6105. The odds of it being specifically 5555 is one-thirteenth of that (as there are 13 different ranks), so 1/(6105 x 13) = 1/79365. With 9 hands dealt at the table, it becomes 9/79365 (or 1 in 8818.3) that any given full ring hand will have quad 5s.
One thing to consider though... to be fair, we really should consider any repeating quads (and not just 5555) as just as noteworthy. Therefore in the same span of time it takes to see this, we can expect to see other repeating quads (4444, 7777, etc.) at the same frequency. I would assume you'd consider that just as unique, so in reality the odds of a similar event happening are 13 times more likely.
Above paragraph simplified: it takes 26 million hands for this to happen with 5s; but in that time it should happen with every other card rank as well. so you'll see it happen with some card rank about every 2 million hands.
Quote from: twospd on January 14, 2012, 07:33:49 AM
Edit
Ok, I looked through some of my books and it seems it is 1 in 17 being dealt a PP If we use the specific PP of AA then it is 1 in 221 So I assume it is the same odds as the AA hand to have 55 as a starting hand Is this correct so far?
Yes, correct on all counts. 1 in 17 to get a pocket pair (specifically, once your first card is dealt, there are 3 that match it of the remaining 51, therefore odds of pairing are 3/51 or 1/17). Odds of it being a specific pair is that 1/17 X 1/13 (as there are 13 different ranks); 1/ (17 x 13) = 1/221.
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Last Edit: January 14, 2012, 01:12:24 PM by sixandfour
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
wachinpntdry
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #4 on:
January 14, 2012, 01:35:17 PM »
Quote from: wachinpntdry on January 14, 2012, 01:11:10 PM
unrelated to the odds question....
or maybe it is.... I suppose the odds of same quads twice in a row would be 3 or 4 times higher than twice in 4 or 5 hands....
wonder what the odds are of same 2 players at 8 handed table getting same two (quads and FH) hands, two hands in a row, and in (nearly) identical order.... with two different decks ! ?
(odds wise the 2 diff decks shouldn't really matter, but in reality with real physical cards in actual human hands....I think it does count for something since the muck (all the dealt cards) get scooped together and the shuffle merely rearranges those cards within a section of the deck and if the various cuts and riffles happen to not break that particular block of cards up too much, I'd think it more likely for same/similar hands to come out (a thorough shuffle by an experienced dealer should most certainly negate much chance of this though)
when they change the deck, they "wash" the cards before starting the regular shuffle (which is in itself is structured and thorough) and unless they're some kind of master magician type that can manipulate the deck however they choose.... this would certainly make it about as random as is possible
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
sixandfour
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #5 on:
January 14, 2012, 01:48:32 PM »
Quote from: wachinpntdry on January 14, 2012, 01:35:17 PM
Quote from: wachinpntdry on January 14, 2012, 01:11:10 PM
unrelated to the odds question....
or maybe it is.... I suppose the odds of same quads twice in a row would be 3 or 4 times higher than twice in 4 or 5 hands....
wonder what the odds are of same 2 players at 8 handed table getting same two (quads and FH) hands, two hands in a row, and in (nearly) identical order.... with two different decks ! ?
(odds wise the 2 diff decks shouldn't really matter, but in reality with real physical cards in actual human hands....I think it does count for something since the muck (all the dealt cards) get scooped together and the shuffle merely rearranges those cards within a section of the deck and if the various cuts and riffles happen to not break that particular block of cards up too much, I'd think it more likely for same/similar hands to come out (a thorough shuffle by an experienced dealer should most certainly negate much chance of this though)
when they change the deck, they "wash" the cards before starting the regular shuffle (which is in itself is structured and thorough) and unless they're some kind of master magician type that can manipulate the deck however they choose.... this would certainly make it about as random as is possible
I think this kinda ties in, so I'm gonna leave it.
The odds in your case are gonna be pretty astronomical, paint. I'm about to step out, but I'll take a crack at figuring it for ya later.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
Kashuskay
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #6 on:
January 14, 2012, 02:17:03 PM »
http://wizardofodds.com
Very good site with odds on gambling.
Kash
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
twospd
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #7 on:
January 14, 2012, 03:00:20 PM »
Quote from: Kashuskay on January 14, 2012, 02:17:03 PM
http://wizardofodds.com
Very good site with odds on gambling.
Kash
You know I checked that site out this morning. I have not had time to digest what has been posted yet. I have tables open now and am using my old computer to do this
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
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Reply #8 on:
January 14, 2012, 04:05:34 PM »
Quote from: twospd on January 14, 2012, 07:33:49 AM
Edit
Ok, I looked through some of my books and it seems it is 1 in 17 being dealt a PP If we use the specific PP of AA then it is 1 in 221 So I assume it is the same odds as the AA hand to have 55 as a starting hand Is this correct so far?
That is correct. But you need to remember that the odds of getting quads in Hold 'Em include those times you have one card in your hand and the other 3 on the board AND those times you have 0 cards in your hand and 4 of them on the board.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
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Reply #9 on:
January 15, 2012, 01:51:11 AM »
In a round of 200 hands you will see more odds of 1:1000000 hitting than 1:10. Its BS. Last hand I got Koed with. Both blinds. They flop fullhouse I flop trips. Allways some BS hand to go out on. Its never AA vs KK and KK loses. Its KK hits a set or some worst odd wins more than upper hand should win.
Todays games.
2nd hand blind on blind I lose flop trips to flopped fullhouse I lose
1st hand allin AKs Vs 55 and 37 I lose
1st hand flop A,6,10 I have A6 I got re-raised all in by AK,10 hits the river.
Allin Q6 pair of Queens on flop AJ calls allin and A hits turn.
near 100% Ahead and 100% Lose
Online poker is rigged. Its a joke. Look at this bs. I cant even win with a pair yet I can hit two pair,trips, anything and still cant win with even stronger hands. Its just rigged.
«
Last Edit: January 15, 2012, 02:49:51 AM by KIWIRIMU
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
sixandfour
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #10 on:
January 15, 2012, 11:24:53 AM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 15, 2012, 01:51:11 AM
In a round of 200 hands you will see more odds of 1:1000000 hitting than 1:10. Its BS. Last hand I got Koed with. Both blinds. They flop fullhouse I flop trips. Allways some BS hand to go out on. Its never AA vs KK and KK loses. Its KK hits a set or some worst odd wins more than upper hand should win.
Todays games.
2nd hand blind on blind I lose flop trips to flopped fullhouse I lose
1st hand allin AKs Vs 55 and 37 I lose
1st hand flop A,6,10 I have A6 I got re-raised all in by AK,10 hits the river.
Allin Q6 pair of Queens on flop AJ calls allin and A hits turn.
near 100% Ahead and 100% Lose
Online poker is rigged. Its a joke. Look at this bs. I cant even win with a pair yet I can hit two pair,trips, anything and still cant win with even stronger hands. Its just rigged.
Oh, OK. Never mind all that I just said, twospd; turns out it's rigged.
Guess we should steer forum discussions toward a legit game. Anyone play MS Hearts?
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #11 on:
January 15, 2012, 01:01:33 PM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 15, 2012, 01:51:11 AM
Online poker is rigged. Its a joke. Look at this bs. I cant even win with a pair yet I can hit two pair,trips, anything and still cant win with even stronger hands. Its just rigged.
Yet you still play it....
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
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Reply #12 on:
January 15, 2012, 08:33:05 PM »
Quote from: JBaker on January 15, 2012, 01:01:33 PM
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 15, 2012, 01:51:11 AM
Online poker is rigged. Its a joke. Look at this bs. I cant even win with a pair yet I can hit two pair,trips, anything and still cant win with even stronger hands. Its just rigged.
Yet you still play it....
Only because you do and I want to be just like you.
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #13 on:
January 15, 2012, 09:29:21 PM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 15, 2012, 08:33:05 PM
Quote from: JBaker on January 15, 2012, 01:01:33 PM
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 15, 2012, 01:51:11 AM
Online poker is rigged. Its a joke. Look at this bs. I cant even win with a pair yet I can hit two pair,trips, anything and still cant win with even stronger hands. Its just rigged.
Yet you still play it....
Only because you do and I want to be just like you.
I'm also into self asphyxiation - you gonna join me on that one?
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #14 on:
January 15, 2012, 10:49:36 PM »
Here i sa SS. The table was running very slow. H/hr was at 29 iirc at one time
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #15 on:
January 16, 2012, 01:09:44 AM »
Tonight my 2 games played.
Final 6 after folding and folding and finally playing a hand allin my AQ vs KQ Q flops then yes of course. The only one hand I patiently play and hit I must lose to a river K.
Final 4 after folding and folding and finally playing a hand allin my AQ vs 66. Flop Q48 then a 5 and then yes you know a 7 hits.
Suppose I still have made 4 from last 6 games ITM. 45 man but its still not right, I should be shipping every game.
Hand 1
Pre 73%
Flop 86%
Turn 93%
River 0%
Hand 2
pre 45%
Flop 89%
Turn 86%
River 0%
These odds allways happen final table when you playing very tight aggressive. And its usually the one hand you push has to be bs odds.
OMG. I just played another game. FINAL TABLE AGAIN AND GUESS WHAT HAPPENS. I BUBBLED OUT AND I KNEW I WOULD BUBBLE FROM THE FINAL TABLE AND I WAS BIG STACK AND I KNEW IT WOULD RIG. ALL SMALL STACKS KEPT DOUBLING UP AND AT ONE TIME 3 PLAYERS WERE ALLIN YET IT SPLIT SO THEY ALL GOT CHIPS BACK. EVERY AFTER THAT WAS PLAYING SO TIGHT IT WAS GOING FOR AGES UNTIL I PUSH AFTER WAITING AND WAITING AND WAITING PLAY YET AGAIN JUST ONE FKN HAND AND WHAT HAPPENS?
??
TAKE A GUESS?
IM ALLIN JJ UTG AND A IDIOT CALLS BB WITH K8?
? AND HITS TRIP 8S?
ITS JUST RIGGED. I CAN SENCE THE LOSE AND ITS ALLWAYS ALLWAYS FINAL TABLES THE ONE HAND I PLAY APART FROM FLIPS HAS TO BE THE WORST ODDS OF WINNING WINS AND KOES ME.
I JUST SHOWING TONIGHTS ODDS ARE CROOKED. ITS RIGGED. ITS NOT JUST THE HANDS COMING, ITS WHY THESE BOTS ARE FOLDING EVERYTHING YET WILL JUST CALL MY HANDS THE ONE HAND I PLAY AND THEY KNOW IM NOT MESSING AROUND.AND THE THING IS AS WELL, IM THE ONE PUSHING IM NOT CALLING, THEY ARE CALLING MY SHOVES.
preflop 72%
flop 79%
turn 88%
river 0%
so I am suppose to win a flip close 50/50 and I lose but im the one who pushed they cant fold KQ its the nuts
I lose a 45% 73% and a 72% allin in 3 final table hands played in a row. odds are not correct even its a micro small sample just for one night.
«
Last Edit: January 16, 2012, 03:34:46 AM by KIWIRIMU
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
Fletch_smf
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #16 on:
January 16, 2012, 03:55:57 AM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 01:09:44 AM
... after folding and folding and finally playing a hand allin ... The only one hand I patiently play and hit ... after folding and folding and finally playing a hand allin ... when you playing very tight aggressive ... And its usually the one hand you push ... UNTIL I PUSH AFTER WAITING AND WAITING AND WAITING PLAY YET AGAIN JUST ONE FKN HAND ...
Think I might have a handle with what your problem is.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
sixandfour
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #17 on:
January 16, 2012, 05:18:39 AM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 01:09:44 AM
I should be shipping every game.
Too bad for you and Phil there's luck involved.
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 01:09:44 AM
I lose a 45% 73% and a 72% allin in 3 final table hands played in a row. odds are not correct even its a micro small sample just for one night.
An astounding 1 in 24 occurence.
Quote from: Fletch_smf on January 16, 2012, 03:55:57 AM
Think I might have a handle with what your problem is.
This might be part of it too...
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 01:09:44 AM
allin in 3 final table hands played in a row.
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #18 on:
January 16, 2012, 08:09:33 PM »
What im going to do is prove this riggedness. Im going to take only the plays from final tables I make from my 45 mans and add the odds. I got my HH from the last 2 games before these three and won was slightly ahead the other slightly behind. All losers. So thats my mission. Im will prove the site rigged whos going to make coin.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #19 on:
January 16, 2012, 09:07:47 PM »
All sites are rigged. Accept it,Embrace it.
«
Last Edit: January 16, 2012, 09:12:53 PM by twospd
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Re: What are the odds?
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Reply #20 on:
January 16, 2012, 10:20:59 PM »
Quote from: twospd on January 16, 2012, 09:07:47 PM
All sites are rigged. Accept it,Embrace it.
Seriously I would accept it and I still honestly would play poker on the site.
In the end it all goes to rake as long as the moneys flowing. That is a statistical fact, so, If players stopped playing the sites would go down. That is also statistacal fact. And from what I notice and can even predict and just what I know and see from games. Its just rigged. I will prove it.
I have made 4 out of last 6 ITMs MTT so why am I complaining? BECAUSE ITS STILL RIGGED. Even if I shipped the next 2 games in a row I would still say its rigged because of the game odds.
Also the random generator works wrong. Its is random but in a no realistic way example:
3 jacks have been dealt to players so one left is in the deck and two spades are on the flop. The random generator just chooses a random suit 25% anyway. It doesnt say "hey this many spades have been dealt so I will make the odds less", it just randomly chooses a suit and is very random.
Same goes for Cards. It doesnt say there is only one jack left in the deck so its going to lower the odds, The last jack being dealt has a 1-13 chance the same as any other cards from 2-A. If all Jacks have been dealt then it chooses random from the remaining 12 sets. 2-A minus Js as they are out and caanot choose another one. Thats how it works and gets away with being 100% random. Yes it is random but not correct and realisitic as a real live deck.
I know that the card generator is crooked and not real that is totally effecting the odds of online poker.
Maybe it is just the card generator working like as to why I say its rigged because to me dealing cards like that is incorrect for poker. I still think there is more going on under the scene.
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K,... 3 jacks have been dealt but randomly pick any card?. Its random. They all have the same odds. Thats why so many one out beats. It doensnt notice 3 jacks are out so the odds go to near nothing. Its random. Pick any set!!!
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Last Edit: January 16, 2012, 11:17:57 PM by KIWIRIMU
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
DforDissent
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #21 on:
January 17, 2012, 02:14:32 AM »
Quote from: twospd on January 16, 2012, 09:07:47 PM
All sites are rigged. Accept it,Embrace it.
obviously.
That easily explains why there are 45,000 posts
here
-- if it was totally random cards being dealt, there's no way that "rigged debate" thread would have gone on for so long, with so many solid contributions on both the Yea and the Nay sides.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
Fletch_smf
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #22 on:
January 17, 2012, 05:04:37 PM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 08:09:33 PM
What im going to do is prove this riggedness. Im going to take only the plays from final tables I make from my 45 mans and add the odds. I got my HH from the last 2 games before these three and won was slightly ahead the other slightly behind. All losers. So thats my mission. Im will prove the site rigged whos going to make coin.
So you're going to post your All Ins from Final Tables? Why not post all your All Ins?
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
Fletch_smf
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #23 on:
January 17, 2012, 05:26:24 PM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 10:20:59 PM
Also the random generator works wrong. Its is random but in a no realistic way example:
3 jacks have been dealt to players so one left is in the deck and two spades are on the flop. The random generator just chooses a random suit 25% anyway. It doesnt say "hey this many spades have been dealt so I will make the odds less", it just randomly chooses a suit and is very random.
Same goes for Cards. It doesnt say there is only one jack left in the deck so its going to lower the odds, The last jack being dealt has a 1-13 chance the same as any other cards from 2-A. If all Jacks have been dealt then it chooses random from the remaining 12 sets. 2-A minus Js as they are out and caanot choose another one. Thats how it works and gets away with being 100% random. Yes it is random but not correct and realisitic as a real live deck.
This is not correct. Each card in the deck is a give a 1 in 52 chance of being dealt, minus the cards that have already been taken out. If there are 3 cards on the board and six players have been dealt in there is 1 in 37 chance of any other card being dealt. They don't choose suit then denomination then marry them up.
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 10:20:59 PM
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K,... 3 jacks have been dealt but randomly pick any card?. Its random. They all have the same odds.
Thats why so many one out beats.
It doensnt notice 3 jacks are out so the odds go to near nothing. Its random. Pick any set!!!
Very, very rarely does anyone have 1 out to win a hand. That situation just doesn't come up very often and you thinking it does probably goes a long way to why you think the deal is crooked.
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Topic: What are the odds?(Read 878 times)
DforDissent
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Re: What are the odds?
«
Reply #24 on:
January 18, 2012, 11:14:06 AM »
Quote from: KIWIRIMU on January 16, 2012, 10:20:59 PM
Also the random generator works wrong. Its is random but in a no realistic way example:
3 jacks have been dealt to players so one left is in the deck and two spades are on the flop. The random generator just chooses a random suit 25% anyway. It doesnt say "hey this many spades have been dealt so I will make the odds less", it just randomly chooses a suit and is very random.
Same goes for Cards. It doesnt say there is only one jack left in the deck so its going to lower the odds, The last jack being dealt has a 1-13 chance the same as any other cards from 2-A.
^ and now we know why virtually every post from KIWIRIMU can and should be ignored. I've rarely seen such incredible BAD logic on an internet forum. And I used to peruse POLITICAL websites!
KIWI, you might want to persume some websites yourself -- about basic probability and permutational and combinational mathematics, simple concepts really.
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