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 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?



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Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?  (Read 228 times) More Search
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Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
« on: August 13, 2011, 12:59:55 AM »

Man, I miss the FTP forums and everyone. I noticed the forums were back up... couldn't log in, but saw D4D (i think) say everyone was here.

Villain is a 24/16 reg over a decent sample. We don't have any particular history. PT3 is spazzing out for me right now, so I'll go off what I remember. He opens 17% from EP. Cbets 63% OTF, 41% OTT. He had a ~59% fold to bet OTF iirc.

When he checks to me, I feel the only thing I have to worry about would be 77/QQ and 77 probably bets flop. Am I getting PPs to fold to a river bet? Thoughts on if I should be betting river? Since no relevant history, I felt something like $12-$15 might still be looked up, and possibly even $18. Anyone think bombing this river is totally awesome?

Merge - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $50.00
BTN: $64.88
SB: $17.56
BB: $49.25
UTG: $144.73
Hero (MP): $60.64

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has  J A

UTG raises to $1.33, Hero calls $1.33, fold, BTN calls $1.33, fold, fold

Flop: ($4.74, 3 players)  Q 7 Q
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.00, fold, UTG calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.74, 2 players)  5
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.75, UTG calls $6.75

River: ($24.24, 2 players)  4
UTG checks, Hero...?

« Last Edit: August 13, 2011, 03:22:40 AM by Fletch_smf, Reason: to fix up card graphics » Logged

Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2011, 04:33:54 AM »

You obviously have no show down value, as there are no draws out there so he has a pocket pair or better. Betting $18 into $24 you need him to fold 43% of the time for it to be break even. I don't think you're getting that.

Your turn bet seems too weak to indicate that you're holding a Q so it comes down to if you can make him think you're PP is bigger than his. If he thinks you're capable of bluffing any % of the time, then this is the board to look you up if he's holding 88+, KQ+. I'm checking behind unless I've been cultivating a very nitty image.
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Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
profiltwospd
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2011, 05:06:10 AM »

I should not do this but here is my perspective.

You have AJo in mp...you flat and get a cc/flat call behind you.....flop comes Q7Q rainbow...I check/ fold and move on to the next hand.

To me there can be no good outcome to this hand and if by chance you get to showdown you aint gonna win sht so why stick around?

If I was playing this hand,depending on what feel I had for utg raiser, I would have folded pre or hit him hard.I sure would not have wanted anyone coming in behind me.

I know I have alot to learn.


EDIT: Was still thinking about this and realized it was a SH Tbl....so more or less disregard what I said....

« Last Edit: August 13, 2011, 06:18:48 AM by twospd, Reason: still waking up » Logged
Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2011, 04:44:31 PM »

You obviously have no show down value, as there are no draws out there so he has a pocket pair or better. Betting $18 into $24 you need him to fold 43% of the time for it to be break even. I don't think you're getting that.

Your turn bet seems too weak to indicate that you're holding a Q so it comes down to if you can make him think you're PP is bigger than his. If he thinks you're capable of bluffing any % of the time, then this is the board to look you up if he's holding 88+, KQ+. I'm checking behind unless I've been cultivating a very nitty image.

Ya, once I looked over the hand, I realized my turn bet sizing really sucked. I also forgot to say stuff about my image. I was playing 16/13 over ~50 hands this session so far and hadn't really shown all that much aggression so far. However, I've played quite a few hands with villain and if he remembers any session, he knows I'm capable of being fairly aggressive.
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Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2011, 04:56:35 PM »

I should not do this but here is my perspective.

You have AJo in mp...you flat and get a cc/flat call behind you.....flop comes Q7Q rainbow...I check/ fold and move on to the next hand.

To me there can be no good outcome to this hand and if by chance you get to showdown you aint gonna win sht so why stick around?

If I was playing this hand,depending on what feel I had for utg raiser, I would have folded pre or hit him hard.I sure would not have wanted anyone coming in behind me.

I know I have alot to learn.


EDIT: Was still thinking about this and realized it was a SH Tbl....so more or less disregard what I said....



I wouldn't mind even just folding pre sometimes, but I'm trying to find any +ev spots where I can outplay/outflop people. He definitely is opening wide enough to make a flat pre with position profitable imo. And ya, SH makes this slightly different than FR since UTG can open wider, but once we get to the flop, I think ranges just shift ever so slightly and everything plays the same.

If we go to showdown, you're right that I won't be winning anything. But his flop check means he wants a cheap showdown... we want to make his life hell with 88+. The only hands he checks OTF that is trapping is QQ/77, AQ/KQ should be betting out, and it's possible he c/c down with QT/QJ afraid of a better queen (but even that should still be betting flop). The rest of his range should be PPs and maybe a stubborn 7x. So one barrel probably won't get it done, two barrels might, and 3 barrels just makes this a hard call for him OTR.
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Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2011, 05:19:00 AM »

Here i go again....
Take what I say with a grain of salt and remember two things... 1)I am only recently making the transition from LHE to NL  
                                                                                            2) I am only playing 10NL stakes, full ring

When I say fold it is because at 10nl I can not detect a whole lot of bluffing and what there is used against me so far I am more than paid back when I do have the goods...to me this particular hand is fit or fold...when u say the utg/villain with a Q should be betting out well to me if I was in villains spot I would  would be checking a Q and letting folks behind me bluff away...it happens so often at 10nl at is unbelievable...then I would play back hard/make a big bet at sd and either get paid off or take their bluff money and leave them wondering...

I type slow and need to get to work but have many more thoughts running through my head about this particular spot and would really enjoy keeping this thread going...I am trying not to stick my foot in my mouth so it is taking me awhile to put on paper my thoughts...

One advantage I believe I do have having come from only playing LHE is my post flop play....I have seen Sooooooo many hands go to showdown  where it seems on the NL side most ppl have no real post flop skill ... I get bombarded with chat about being such a donk when I go to s/d with some of my holdings...seems some/most have watched to much tv poker...I am not scared to play big pots post flop with decent draws yet majority of players I have ran into so far think if they bet/bluff big enough that should do it....I have a different perspective still being new to nl and so far it is working...maybe run good/ maybe good variance/maybe online is rigged and i am being favored right now but so far so good..


EDIT:  the one caveat to me slow playing the queen is if there is a PP behind me that does catch their full house...it is something I would just live with and move on...to me the pp behind has 2outs to their full house and i have 3 with my kicker...i will live wih that
« Last Edit: August 15, 2011, 05:28:28 AM by twospd » Logged
Author Topic: 50nl 6max triple barrel bluff once checked to OTF?(Read 228 times)
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2011, 03:27:49 PM »

Meh. Take it with a grain of salt. But you don't rep anything. What I mean by that is you're repping a complete bluff or a Qx, 77 type hand. Most 66-JJ would bet a street and slow down OTT.

But you're only way to win this hand is to bet the river. Bad thing is, his range right now is not scared of the board and is only scared of maybe 20% of your hands that take this line. B/F $19. You can probably get his 66, 88, maybe 99 to fold and any AKs as well.
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