This year, I thought we'd try something a little different for our NFL picks, and convert some bonus bucks at FSB to boot.  Gjecat crushed the field last year on straight picks for every game, but this year the format will be drastically different.  For this year, I would like the panel to pick against the spread, and we will place 10 cent bets on FSB for every game picked.  I'll keep track of the panels' individual picks, and the one who ends the season with the best record will be the champ.

I don't have a format planned exactly, but I kind of figured on each panelist picking 3-5 "locks" every week, and possibly doubling one of those bets.  In addition, I was considering a format in which the panelist with the worst record every week got first chance to pick, and panelists would in in turn based on record pick in succession, with each player having to place at least 1 unique bet.  I dunno if that's too complicated, or if you guys might have a better idea, but the floor's open for interested parties to express interest in picking, and/or give ideas on how to structure it.

Why can't we pick them both ways? Picking straight up and picking vs the spread are both hard to do consistantly.

Can't we pick straight up like last year and have a new thread or use the old one and pick vs the spread via a new thread. 2 threads would be going at the same time and would create traffic.

Cat has actually set up a pick league on ESPN for both straight and spread NFL, so I thought I'd use that for our panel picks, saving me time in recordkeeping and having faster update times.  In addition, for side fun and FSB bonus conversion, I've decided to have a "Master Locksmith"  Competition.  Each week, every competitor will get to choose their 3 "lock" picks, and will also be allowed to "double shot" one of those bets if they wish, for double the bet and double the credit.
At the end of the NFL regular season, the picker who completed the season with the best winning percentage will be proclaimed sixandfourum's "Master Locksmith", and receive a siggy and a surprise bonus prize.

So, who thinks they can be the Master Locksmith?

Excellent!!!    Ribby is in!!!!

OK, Week 1 is nearly upon us.  We have these players competing to be the sixandfourum Master Locksmith:


wachinpntdry
ribbybruno
gjecat
patches
sixandfour (that's right, I'm here to spoil the fun)

So before Thursday night's game starts, I need three ATS (against the spread) picks from any NFL Week 1 game from each of you.  You can also choose one to double shot, for twice the credit (or twice the loss) if you like.  Post your picks ITT.

Here are the current lines.  You can choose to wait and try to find a better spread before you bet if you choose; but any spread other than the ones posted ITT you must note and verify the location of with a link or screenshot.  Either way, your picks will be placed at FSB at the current line.

Sep 08    451    New Orleans Saints    +4
8:30pm    452    Green Bay Packers    -4
Sunday, September 11, 2011 All Times Eastern
Sep 11    453    Pittsburgh Steelers    +1
1:00pm    454    Baltimore Ravens    -1
Sep 11    455    Detroit Lions    +1
1:00pm    456    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    -1
Sep 11    457    Atlanta Falcons    -2.5
1:00pm    458    Chicago Bears    +2.5
Sep 11    459    Buffalo Bills    +5.5
1:00pm    460    Kansas City Chiefs    -5.5
Sep 11    461    Indianapolis Colts    +9
1:00pm    462    Houston Texans    -9
Sep 11    463    Philadelphia Eagles    -4.5
1:00pm    464    St. Louis Rams    +4.5
Sep 11    465    Cincinnati Bengals    +6.5
1:00pm    466    Cleveland Browns    -6.5
Sep 11    467    Tennesse Titans    +3
1:00pm    468    Jacksonville Jaguars    -3
Sep 11    469    New York Giants    -3
4:15pm    470    Washington Redskins    +3
Sep 11    471    Carolina Panthers    +7
4:15pm    472    Arizona Cardinals    -7
Sep 11    473    Seattle Seahawks    +5.5
4:15pm    474    San Francisco 49ers    -5.5
Sep 11    475    Minnesota Vikings    +9
4:15pm    476    San Diego Chargers    -9
Sep 11    477    Dallas Cowboys    +4.5
8:25pm    478    New York Jets    -4.5
Monday, September 12, 2011 All Times Eastern
Sep 12    479    New England Patriots    -7
7:00pm    480    Miami Dolphins    +7
Sep 12    481    Oakland Raiders    +3
10:15pm    482    Denver Broncos    -3
 

except in the case of waiting for FSBs published line to change on a particular game, doesn't line B negate line A...

will not all results win or lose (or double shot win or loss) be based on actual FSB bets won or lost ? (to wit; only FSBs lines at time of bet are relevant ?)

Because I cannot guarantee that I can always place the bet timely enough that I will get the same line, I will place the bet as it stands, but give credit for the line the player intended when he placed the bet.  I don't know why you think B negates A;  I'm just giving you guys the option to find bets at the most favorable lines (FSB or otherwise), as any betting person would likely do.  You can go off your local paper's line, or Bodog, or whatever; so long as you can document it.

If that's too complicated, I can just freeze the lines at what I posted; but if FSB's lines change between when I post the lines and you guys' bets are put in, I still can't just go off the FSB results.

As long as you're not concerned with accuracy.

You're missing my point.  I can't guarantee the bets I make will be the same as the ones you guys make.  You might take the Pats -6.5, and if I don't put it in until tomorrow, the line might change to -8.  So I've cheated you out of a point and a half; if the Pats win by a touchdown, the FSB bet will lose, even though the bet you intended to make would have won.

These lines change at any given notice.  I can't always be here to place bets immediately, and FSB has occasional down times to boot.  In the several months I've been placing the bonus conversion bets, there have been more than a few times the line had changed between when cat or ribby posted the bet and the time I actually got the bet placed. 

Now if you go in knowing this and are willing to accept that someone may get the shaft on a bet one of these times, then we can just use the FSB result.  But we'd better determine that beforehand so no one can complain when it happens to them.

BUF +6

IND +8.5

TEN +2  dbl

.... lock it up  




spreads from FSB @ 10:59 9/8/11

2 wins
1 loss (dbl)

net: zero


1 win (dbl)
2 losses

net: zero


1 win
1 loss
1 push (dbl)

net: zero


1 loss
1 win (dbl)
1 push

net: +1




 well, we're all off to fine start eh  
 


be interested to see after Mon. night how we all actually did with FSB wagers, depending on when six got em in, could be entirely diff results (hopefully some of the closer spreads moved into our favor by time wagers were placed)



 Edited to include MNF results

  You've got the early lead , damn Giants screwed me lol !!!