Select Forum Color
Forums
Share this topic on FacebookShare this topic on MySpaceShare this topic on Twitter
Pages: [1] Go Down
Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ  (Read 144 times) More Search
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Author Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ(Read 144 times)
« on: August 10, 2010, 10:13:37 PM »

This is usually a no-brainer, but villain is running 16/1 over 85 hands and shoved UTG fairly quickly.  There are 246 players left and 234 get paid, so this is a lot tougher than it looks.

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t70 - 9 players - View hand 853992
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: t23488       M = 15.35
CO: t10290       M = 6.73
BTN: t13960       M = 9.12
SB: t17080       M = 11.16
Hero (BB): t5490       M = 3.59
UTG: t7877       M = 5.15
UTG+1: t45222       M = 29.56
UTG+2: t31223       M = 20.41
MP1: t17830       M = 11.65

Pre Flop: (t1530) Hero is BB with Q A
UTG raises to t7807 all in, 7 folds, Hero has t4820 behind
Logged

Author Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ(Read 144 times)
profilsixandfour
The other white meat
Administrator
Pro
*****

The triumphant return of Claymation Six!
Online Online

Posts: 3570
Topics: 432


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2010, 12:03:46 AM »

Yuck.  This is a brilliant puzzle.

Well, given raiser, and the fact that his M isn't quite critical just yet, I'm fairly sure you're a little behind his range yet.  Looks like in all likelihood a flip or AK though, as he has a little room to value raise KK and AA if that's his bag.  Given your M and getting 1.45:1, it's sick close.  

You're looking at position in 2 hands to move some chips.  However, the 2 big stacks are in the blinds on your button and cutoff, so your FE to steal with 4400 chips after the blinds go through is sketchy.  The bubble makes that even worse.  So, given that, you're really looking at picking up another hand before the blinds get around again, or your chances of getting anywhere in the tourney are toast.

What specific range do you have on Villain here?  I'm thinking something like 10's up, AK, maybe AQ suited, but I haven't seen his play.  I don't see you dominating him, but I don't think KK+ is quite as likely as the rest based on his having enough chips to value bet.  Did you see his hand when he raised?  It's a longshot, but it wouldn't hurt to know on the off chance it got shown.

Failing any other info, I think I call and hope for a flip.  I think we're a bit +EV on the call, I don't like my chances waiting for a better spot with 4k or less and big stacks behind close to the bubble, and I would rather bust than (big maybe) min-cash and have no shot at a run.
Logged


Check out our Calendar for our regular games
Author Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ(Read 144 times)
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2010, 03:04:36 AM »

Considering that they have 12 blinds and have shoved UTG so close to the bubble, I'd give them credit for having a pretty sick-strong range -- QQ+ and AK pretty much.  It really depends on whether he's only raised 1% of his hands because he's simply been card-dead and whether he's actually aware of how to ideally play on the bubble, which I think makes this really hard to figure out.

For what it's worth, I did fold and ended up making the money within a few hands.  Considering how card-dead I'd been the whole time and how unlikely it was that things were going to turn around at that rate, and how I felted with AJ in less than 1/2 an orbit from the hand in question, I think it was a solid fold that was much more likely to lead to the best outcome I could hope for at this point. 
Logged
Author Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ(Read 144 times)
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2010, 05:06:12 PM »

I concur with these thoughts...
Had he been on the button or shorter I think we can call.
Logged
Author Topic: $11 MTT - Really tight raiser shoves UTG near bubble, I'm short-stacked w/ AQ(Read 144 times)
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2010, 06:55:26 AM »

You have 8bb's, you can't be folding AQ here, you are likely racing against pocket pairs 66 - JJ, and with 12bbs villian could be doing this with aj as well, you have to take your shot here for a chip up.
Logged

Pages: [1] Go Up Print 
« previous next »



Jump to: