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Topic: A hand played by a pro  (Read 265 times) More Search
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« on: December 03, 2010, 09:00:45 PM »

 Here is a situation I would like some input on.  The BB was a professional poker player and instructor.

You are in a 180 man 12.00 turbo tournament. It's down to 20 players (top 18 paid) and you are in the BB. After posting you have 10,500 chips left.  Blinds are 500/1000 w 100 antes.

It's folded around to the button who shoves for 13k. This player has shoved several times from late position in unopened hands and you feel he has a wide range.

You have A3o.

Let's have a discussion!



Kash
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2010, 07:38:02 AM »

Just my thoughts--
 ok, you're M is going to be down around 4 if you fold--but in calling you have no fold equity, so you're taking a coin flip.  Since you're in the BB, you have some time to look for a better spot or at least to be the shover and pick up some fold equity.

13,500 is the average stack size, if you win the coin flip you are in good shape but not a dominating chipstack.  If you lose you're just out.

I think it's a fold and look for a better spot.  If I had 8-8+ or A-T+ I might rethink it.  I don't like having the 3.
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
profilsixandfour
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2010, 09:05:18 AM »

Even a wide range only gives you around 55% equity here, so it's essentially a flip, and one you have no need to take at present.  You're around the shoving threshold yourself, but still by my measure a touch above it.  I'd let this one go and wait to steal some blinds myself, rather than force the issue with someone easily picked off later.
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2010, 09:47:55 PM »

This is really dependent on how the SB has been playing because the SB is going to have just as much of an influence on button's decision here, as well as what place we're in exactly (we're not that far from the chip average.  Any notes on SB?

In a vacuum, I call if SB folds because the button's probably doing this for a few reasons:

1) It's good for aggressive players to pressure people near the bubble, especially if the people those aggro players have been folding out are relatively snug.  This makes opening with a wide range even on the bubble profitable for these players.
2) There's a lot of nits in 180-mans who like to settle for mincashes in situations like this.  This makes it more likely that #1 is the case.
3) Considering his history, it seems safe to assume that villain's aggression has worked out for them quite well before, making #1 even more likely.

Not to mention that:

3) I'll have only 5 M behind (one M being about 2,100-2,200 chips) if I fold now and the hand after and it's 7-handed, maybe 6-handed so I won't get many chances to pick up  a hand before I have to post again.  I'd also expect the blind levels to go up again within the next orbit, making my M even lower.  This means there's a chance I'll miss out on a cash anyways.
4) Excluding our BB, we're only about 2K chips below average, but with 20 players left this late in a turbo structure, that usually means that you're below the median (in this case, 10th/11th place) and as such are just as vulnerable to miss out on a cash as the 8 other players in that category considering the 5-minute levels.  However, doubling up in this spot gives us about 8% of the chips in play and thus a better chance at making the FT.

If we're dominated, whatever.  That's part of the volatility of turbos, and if you're afraid of being dominated in this spot and not concerned about the worse hands that you're letting get away with this move, well, you shouldn't be playing turbos.
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2010, 01:16:09 AM »

This is the kind of discussion I was hoping for.

Personally given the circumstances I am folding A3o in this spot.  Different story if the money bubble has passed.  Then I will consider a call although my experience is that whenever I shove or call with Ace rag I usually lose so I am very careful with that holding.

I have lost to players calling with Ace/rag and been a huge favorite and lost and after I look at the hand I think to myself 'what an idiot'.  How can he call off 80 percent of his chips with that hand?   I think that a lot of players are playing a very loose crazy style  in tournaments today.  I see all kinds of things that I initially think are dumb and after some thought I believe some of the plays aren't as crazy as I thought.  AJ had a very good example with the A10 and AK hands being only 3 percent different than A3o vs 27o for example.  However, the flip side is that A3o vs a ton of hands isn't in great shape and I am not making the call in this spot because of the money bubble.

The way the hand played out is that the button had QQ and it held up and the pokerstars pro lost with his A3.  The pro explained that he was out to win the tournament and felt that he had the best hand vs this particular opponent 55-60 percent of the time and was willing to gamble on a coin flip.  While the double up is great, being knocked out of the tournament leaves you with nothing for your efforts.  Sometimes it's smarter to think things through.  I don't think this was the case here.

I think it was an bad play even if he was against a hand he was the favorite in. It still doesn't guarantee a win preflop.  Of course if he's behind it doesn't mean a loss preflop either.  I think it boils down to the style you want to play and the risks you are willing to take.  To each their own.



Kash
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2010, 01:20:33 AM »

This is really dependent on how the SB has been playing because the SB is going to have just as much of an influence on button's decision here, as well as what place we're in exactly (we're not that far from the chip average.  Any notes on SB?

In a vacuum, I call if SB folds because the button's probably doing this for a few reasons:

1) It's good for aggressive players to pressure people near the bubble, especially if the people those aggro players have been folding out are relatively snug.  This makes opening with a wide range even on the bubble profitable for these players.
2) There's a lot of nits in 180-mans who like to settle for mincashes in situations like this.  This makes it more likely that #1 is the case.
3) Considering his history, it seems safe to assume that villain's aggression has worked out for them quite well before, making #1 even more likely.

Not to mention that:

3) I'll have only 5 M behind (one M being about 2,100-2,200 chips) if I fold now and the hand after and it's 7-handed, maybe 6-handed so I won't get many chances to pick up  a hand before I have to post again.  I'd also expect the blind levels to go up again within the next orbit, making my M even lower.  This means there's a chance I'll miss out on a cash anyways.
4) Excluding our BB, we're only about 2K chips below average, but with 20 players left this late in a turbo structure, that usually means that you're below the median (in this case, 10th/11th place) and as such are just as vulnerable to miss out on a cash as the 8 other players in that category considering the 5-minute levels.  However, doubling up in this spot gives us about 8% of the chips in play and thus a better chance at making the FT.

If we're dominated, whatever.  That's part of the volatility of turbos, and if you're afraid of being dominated in this spot and not concerned about the worse hands that you're letting get away with this move, well, you shouldn't be playing turbos.

Excellent response.   

In a nutshell, now that I've seen comments that are for the call I can understand the reasons.

However, I'm still going to nit my way into a cash and then take my shots  Smiley

Ultimately I believe calling or not calling are both acceptable plays.



Kash
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
profilsixandfour
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2010, 11:19:39 AM »

Ultimately I believe calling or not calling are both acceptable plays.

That's exactly right.  This is, as if by design of the poser of the question, at a stack depth right on the edge of the push n' pray zone.  Right about the same time as you get into that mode, you have to think about taking flips and near-flips.  So it essentially comes down to the individual's comfort zone in the particular situation. 

There's a pro and con to each choice:  By calling, you take a probable +EV situ to double your stack and put yourself out of danger for the moment; but it comes with a 40-45% chance of getting knocked out entirely.  On the other hand, by folding, your immediate danger of elimination is avoided, but at no gain to your situ and the need to chip up unmet, while the clock is ticking on your tourney. 

However, I'm still going to nit my way into a cash and then take my shots  Smiley

The bubble should (as in almost every case IMO) be insignificant. In this case, assuming no more than what is stated, I think I have time to make a move yet; and therefore I'm not comfy with the call.  In fact, I would rather (and probably would) open-shove with ATC on the next hand folded to me rather than call one with A3o, as there's a strong possibility of picking up a significant pot (relative to stack) without a fight.  If this is problematic due to an over agro table, the situation changes; but I've heard nothing of that.  So I'd take a page out of Villain's book and get to thievin' myself.
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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2011, 05:11:12 PM »

Pretty sure folding here is very bad. You can essentially put the shover on ATC. If you really really want to milk a mincash that's fine, but the way these things payout 10th-18th all pay the same so doubling up 55% of the time here easily puts us in situations where we can make a lot more money.

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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2011, 08:09:29 PM »

Pretty sure folding here is very bad. You can essentially put the shover on ATC. If you really really want to milk a mincash that's fine, but the way these things payout 10th-18th all pay the same so doubling up 55% of the time here easily puts us in situations where we can make a lot more money.



If your foolish enough to not want to listen to what mr sanders has to say here, then its prob best for your roll to just cash out and stop playing

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Author Topic: A hand played by a pro(Read 265 times)
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2011, 09:16:15 PM »

... its prob best for your roll to just cash out and stop playing
That's just cruel, dude.
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