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Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman  (Read 241 times) More Search
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
profilDforDissent
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« on: November 18, 2011, 07:00:18 PM »
any thoughts?
http://www.bubbleprotection.com/how-it-works
Quote
Here’s How It Works
The "bubble" is the last finishing position in a poker tournament before entering the tournament payout structure "in the money". Typically the "bubble" refers to a single or small number of positions outside the last finishing position. BubbleProtection.com covers a "new bubble" that is calculated at 10% of the total number of tournament entrants. By way of example, if one thousand players enter an online tournament, the "new bubble" covered by the Bubble Protection policy would be 100 positions (10% of total entrants) outside of the tournament payout structure.
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2011, 07:06:03 PM »
I think it's a great idea, only because stupid people will actually purchase protection.

Big name endorsement + seemingly good product = lots of money. Genius!

Edit: Okay, it doesn't just protect players who finish on the bubble. It protects players who finish on the 'new bubble'. The new bubble is 10% of the total field, so in a 1200 player tourney the new bubble is 120 positions outside the money. So, BubbleProtection.com pays 10% of the time, while charging roughly a 12% (of tourney buy-in) fee. Not bad.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2011, 07:13:47 PM by BOYNAMEDSUE » Logged
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2011, 08:19:38 PM »
Quote from: hghlndr6 on November 18, 2011, 07:48:46 PM
Quote from: BOYNAMEDSUE on November 18, 2011, 07:06:03 PM
I think it's a great idea, only because stupid people will actually purchase protection.

Big name endorsement + seemingly good product = lots of money. Genius!

Edit: Okay, it doesn't just protect players who finish on the bubble. It protects players who finish on the 'new bubble'. The new bubble is 10% of the total field, so in a 1200 player tourney the new bubble is 120 positions outside the money. So, BubbleProtection.com pays 10% of the time, while charging roughly a 12% (of tourney buy-in) fee. Not bad.

Huh?  If the "new bubble" is 10% of the entire field, why isn't it (in your example) position 120 exactly, with in/out of the money being irrelevant?

Well generally speaking Top 10% are getting paid. So Insurance for top 10% doesn't really make sense. It's the next 10% outside of the money that needs the insurance.
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2011, 08:29:31 PM »
Quote from: Fletch_smf on November 18, 2011, 08:19:38 PM
Quote from: hghlndr6 on November 18, 2011, 07:48:46 PM
Quote from: BOYNAMEDSUE on November 18, 2011, 07:06:03 PM
I think it's a great idea, only because stupid people will actually purchase protection.

Big name endorsement + seemingly good product = lots of money. Genius!

Edit: Okay, it doesn't just protect players who finish on the bubble. It protects players who finish on the 'new bubble'. The new bubble is 10% of the total field, so in a 1200 player tourney the new bubble is 120 positions outside the money. So, BubbleProtection.com pays 10% of the time, while charging roughly a 12% (of tourney buy-in) fee. Not bad.

Huh?  If the "new bubble" is 10% of the entire field, why isn't it (in your example) position 120 exactly, with in/out of the money being irrelevant?

Well generally speaking Top 10% are getting paid. So Insurance for top 10% doesn't really make sense. It's the next 10% outside of the money that needs the insurance.

Ya, i get it now.  Should have read OP's link first.   Embarrassed
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2011, 12:26:43 PM »
Yeah but why start now? Any link from DforDissent = dangerous to click! (in the opinion of most of the old FTP forum regs Wink )


But yeah, I thought at first what you did, then I realized with the Stars Top15% payout, that means 16%..25% would be "covered" by this insurance.

What it basically means is that if you buy the insurance, you might want to just nit up until you are in Top25%, then you can start crazygonuts shoving and hope to build a stack for the True Bubble, at which point you can nit up again ... since you now have a wild image you will definitely get action when you finally push again (with a Real Hand this time, obv.)


Might be something to try in a smaller field MTT for sure; but imo not in a huge-ass field, cuz there if you do survive to the Actual Bubble then it takes a really long time before your payouts are much more than the min-cash that the lowest payout gets. Contrast that with a smaller field, after the Actual Bubble pops, it hopefully won't be long before you "move up the ladder", and you'll likely still be at the same table where they witnessed your crazy pushing, so your strong hands get called a lot wider by those observant folks (they don't know you only did it cuz you bought the Bubble Insurance).

/theory
« Last Edit: November 19, 2011, 12:35:08 PM by DforDissent » Logged

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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2011, 06:32:00 AM »
An Article by Mike Stein

http://pokerfuse.com/features/comment-analysis/where-and-when-should-you-buy-bubble-insurance/
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Author Topic: Bubble Protection -- endorse by Chris Moorman(Read 241 times)
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2011, 09:54:35 AM »
Quote from: Fletch_smf on November 23, 2011, 06:32:00 AM
An Article by Mike Stein

http://pokerfuse.com/features/comment-analysis/where-and-when-should-you-buy-bubble-insurance/


On that site, there's also this, discussing its initial launch, mentioning an existing "bubble insurance" service that I never heard of:
http://pokerfuse.com/news/media-and-software/bubble-insurance-space-heats-bubbleprotectioncom-launch/
Quote

Launched on Thursday, BubbleProtection.com competes alongside existing service Beat The Bubble to convince you to play it safe and take out insurance.

Beat The Bubble, online since April this year, takes a more simplistic approach to bubble insurance. By paying a small fee, you can extend the bubble by 1, 2 or 3 extra spots. If you bubble in these positions, the service will pay you out up to 125% of the buyin.

BP>BTB AINEC, imo.






edit: noteable thought-snippets excerpted from http://pokerfuse.com/features/comment-analysis/where-and-when-should-you-buy-bubble-insurance/
Quote
BubbleProtection offers significantly better expected value than Beat The Bubble for tournaments of approximately 100 or more players, but Beat The Bubble will roughly be a better deal for tournaments in the narrow range of 25-50 players, depending on choice of policy. Of course, a break-even player will not be able to derive a positive expected value from these contracts.

In practice, the expected value considerations of each of these contracts would likely dominate any variance reduction effects.

A solid winning MTT player with an ROI around 20-30% is probably close to indifferent between buying a policy and not, and players of significantly higher relative skill to their fields may be able to pick up some small but meaningful expected gains by purchasing insurance from these companies.

... the premiums seem fairly beatable for strong players.  It seems like the companies will need to attract a pretty consistent stream of bubble-fearing weak players in order to profit.  Are there enough such players out there to sustain the companies?


and Chris Moorman defends/explains his endorsement:
http://www.pokernews.com/news/2011/11/chris-moorman-analysis-of-bubble-protection-11480.htm
« Last Edit: November 23, 2011, 10:18:43 AM by DforDissent » Logged

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