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Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.  (Read 1010 times) More Search
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« on: June 29, 2011, 08:49:17 AM »

This was at the Tuesday MTT at Parx for $120. 

The relevant players is the LP loose aggressive.  He has me covered.  He's been involved in about 50% of the pots so far raising about 30% of them.  He called a 3 bet J4s and called a c-bet with AJX board and turned 2 pair, check check, and he overbet the pot slightly on the river. 

The other hand he showed down he limped behind with Q8s and bet the flop and raised the turn on an 8 high paired board, then bet the river when and A hit. 

This is my second hand played.  the only othe rhand I played I completed the SB in a multi-way pot and folded to a flop bet

Level 25/50 - 10 players

I was UTG+2 - 9,900 - Ah Jh

Preflop (150) - 2 calls, hero calls, 3 folds, LP LAG raises to 150, 3 folds, 2 calls, I call. 

(I debated raising both times, however, this table has been too loose IMO to raise AJs.  The first time, I would still be in a multi-way pot and the second time through, I am being called by at least the LAG and don't really relish playing AJs in a 3 bet pot OOP.)

Flop (675)  10h 6c 4h - 2 checks, hero checks, LAG bets 600, 2 folds, hero raises 1,700, LAG calls in about 15 seconds. 

Turn (4,075) Qd - hero bets 3,000, (no one had the guts to double barrel against him yet, so I don't know how he responds.  This may have been my biggest mistake in getting pot committed with this bet.) LAG goes all in.   

Now I have a close decision.  I have a flush draw, gutshot straight draw and possibly the A may be outs. 

The pot contains 15,125 and I have to 5,050 giving me 2.99:1 pot odds. 

I am putting him on at least TX here.  But he is the type who could possibly make this move with maybe a FD.  I was thinking though with a set, he 3 bets me on the flop, so he may have those, but with a less likely hood than the probabilities of having a set.  I don't think he has a straight draw as KJ and J9 aren't flatting the flop raise.   

Against TX hands I have 18 outs.
Against QX hands I have 15 outs.
Against two pair hands I have 11/12 outs (QT I don't have the Qh as an out)
Against sets I have 12 outs. 
Against a bluff with AK I have 14 outs
I am ahead of every other bluff. 

Question 1: What is the likely hood of each of those above hands in his range?

So I have the right odds to call (just barely) but pretty much 75% I am busting out or if I fold, I have half my stack in the pot. 

Question 2: Should I be calling this with the pot odds or does tournament equity indicate a fold even though I am getting the right odds to call?
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
profilTheDarkElf
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2011, 12:35:22 AM »

I kind of agree with everything you did.

I'm very tempted to raise at both opportunities you had PF, but call/call in understandable, and perfectly reasonable.

Flop play is fine.

Leading out on the turn is the one play I might change, since you can probably check/call a normal sized turn bet profitably; but I probably lead anyway.  Once you bet turn, you are quite committed.
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2011, 12:15:23 AM »

hey guys... long time

I've not been playing poker at all so take my words for what they're worth to ya.

I like your preflop play, he has already shown a tendancy of limping behind so I am fairly certain when he bumps it pre he has better than AJs or at least a pp.

On the flop I would love this play if stacks were small enough to jam it in, but we have almost 200bb here JJ- unless the live structure you are playing has insanely fast blind levels I strongly recomend playing a smallball pot here and c/cing.

On the turn I would c/c again if played my way on the flop. However after c/ring the flop you have to lead out here to rep anything other than the draw imo. I really don't like the sizing here though, I doubt many live players have experience enough to realize that a 1700 bet would be far to small so I think I would do that again. If he jams you can get away that way, yet you still rep a strong hand well enough to get him to fold his trash I think.

As played I am prolly calling online, but might find a fold live since you can't play a zillion tournaments a day.

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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
profilsixandfour
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2011, 01:11:22 AM »

I've not been playing poker at all

That's a shame.  Are there any live games around you can get in?
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2011, 01:21:30 PM »

Quote
might find a fold live
damn hard w/ a villain running 50/30/?? in a live mtt.
I find 1 or 2 of these evry table at the 40$/65$ mtt's @ mspd.

Quote
Level 25/50

this is like REAL EARLY in the mtt...
I would let some1 else open the double-barrelling v. villain

w/ only draws.
Either wait on:
2 pair,
TPTK,
overpair,
trips,
or a serious increase in blinds to start pounding.
I'd likely not go 1700 OTF... ur pot odds 4 the flush just got blasted
[altho u throw in the overcards' outs here].
Keeping the pot small, yet being able 2 show down a flush here,
keeps villain slowed down l8r
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2011, 04:50:24 PM »

Quote
might find a fold live
damn hard w/ a villain running 50/30/?? in a live mtt.
I find 1 or 2 of these evry table at the 40$/65$ mtt's @ mspd.

Quote
Level 25/50

this is like REAL EARLY in the mtt...
I would let some1 else open the double-barrelling v. villain

w/ only draws.
Either wait on:
2 pair,
TPTK,
overpair,
trips,
or a serious increase in blinds to start pounding.
I'd likely not go 1700 OTF... ur pot odds 4 the flush just got blasted
[altho u throw in the overcards' outs here].
Keeping the pot small, yet being able 2 show down a flush here,
keeps villain slowed down l8r

You do realize that with the nut flush draw and two overs I am a favorite to win the hand on the flop even if villain has a hand as strong as top pair. 
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Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2011, 08:34:46 PM »

Quote
You do realize that with the nut flush draw and two overs I am a favorite to win the hand on the flop even if villain has a hand as strong as top pair.  
yes.
But, it's still early in the mtt, keep the pot small until you hit & can build stack.
Even as active as villain is, he hits a few of these.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 10:21:43 PM by sixandfour, Reason: fixed quote » Logged
Author Topic: Parx live MTT $120 - I got myself into a bad situation on the turn.(Read 1010 times)
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2011, 11:11:02 PM »

Perfect spot to c/jam turn. Live players hate calling all ins so I think you'll have enough FE to make it super profitable vs a LAG turn betting range.
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